The pundits, the pollsters, they love reminding Americans the Democrats are just not enthusiastic this election cycle. .. they say there is a huge enthusiasm gap. Well I don't believe it! As I write this post President Obama is in Nevada at a rally for Harry Reid speaking to a fired up crowd. Earlier today the president was in Los Angeles with Barbara Boxer and Jerry Brown, the crowd at USC was estimated at 37,000! Both Boxer and Brown have taken leads in the polls.
Thursday the rally was in Seattle for Patty Murray. The University of Washington's football stadium held 10,000 plus an additional 3,000 who couldn't be admitted were outside the stadium where Obama spoke to them first.
Tuesday the crowd at a rally in Wisconsin at the University of Wisconsin campus was estimated at 17,000 with another 9,000 lined up for more than a mile to get in but were diverted to overflow areas. Does this sound like the democratic party is not fired up to vote Nov. 2nd?
Sunday President Obama and First Lady Michelle were in Ohio.....
The latest Newsweek poll shows Democrats remain in a close race with the Republicans. Also news today, the presidents approval rating has risen sharply, 54% up from 48% in late September. His disapproval number dropped to 40. You might say so what, dems are still gonna lose seats in November, Yes I know but the tidal wave has turned into a ripple! 48% of registered voters would be more likely to vote for Democrats compared to 42% lean Republican according to the last NEWSWEEK Poll.
President Obama still has IT, he can fire up the base and has proven it this week. The right has Palin to fire up its base, but can she be president?? Other than Palin who fires up the Republicans? Who will they put up against Obama in 2012? I don't believe they made any strides in the past 2 years, in fact I think the GOP has lost all momentum....
43 comments:
No one can predict elections. Maybe Eisenhower/Stevenson in 1952. We have 20/20 hindsight on that one. Well, that, and we all knew Mondale and Dukakis would eat shit.
What's next? Don't even hold elections, just run a computer simulation? Hopefully democrats will gain seats in both houses just to make a point.
I love reading your blog. I just hope your right Here in the first Congressional district of New York, our Congressman (D) is in a tight race with a millionaire who made his money outsourcing jobs to India and other third world countries. I can't believe people are buying his line of shit. Sometimes dems need motivation, they got to realize this is an important election.
I agree FJ. These blogs like fivethirtyeight can get on my nerves with their constant analyzing the numbers. Do they ever take in to consideration a phone conversation could be someone lying their pants off because they were mad their dinner was interrupted? And 1,000 people polled makes for a cross section of the country? What about the argument for cell phone users, they aren't polled. I'm looking forward to Nov.2nd and 3rd. I'm not delusional, I know rethugs will pick up seats, but remember back to Clinton and his first 2 years and the tidal wave of GOP seats in his first midterm, after that his next 6 years were fantastic. The same things will happen with Obama.
Thanks Steve, you are always kind and should come by and leave me a comment more often!
We Democrats are busy people so we come around a little late but never disappoint! Right? I actually think we've done a pretty good job with showcasing the extreme candidates on the GOP side. People are listening and will vote in this important election. With jobs number one issue dems need to hammer those candidates who are for outsourcing and for tax cuts to the rich because they STILL believe in trickle down bullcrap! The thugs offer NOTHING to help the economy, hopefully the voters are seeing that!
This is what I have been saying along with you Sue, for a long time. We Dems may be slow to come around sometimes but we do come around....lol
The generic ballot they use for most of their polls is worthless in a lot of cases. When they put the name of the candidates on it, it changes the numbers and the Dems are winning.
You're right Annette. Recent polls are showing that Democrats have been gaining just within the last couple of weeks. If Republicans want to win, they have to put up candidates who aren't half-baked kooks like O'Donnell or the idiot in Texas who's calling for a violent overthrow of the government if Dems win.
http://swashzone.blogspot.com/2010/10/republican-candidate-calls-for-violent.html
People need to get educated about what the Republicans really stand for.
Yes, unemployment is still high and that's hurting, but maybe people are starting to realize who's at fault and whose policies are trying to improve things.
Democrats had better get us fired up, because Republicans back in power would just get us fired!
I know Annette. 8 yrs of Bush regime made us all so hungry for change and we wanted change to come NOW. But I think we are wising up and realizing these changes are gonna take time and that it is the dems who will give us what we need. Like I said previously, look at Clinton 2 yrs in, Obama has better numbers. I believe this president will come through just fine after his 8 yrs are up and we'll be doing so well the country will move another dem right in behind him!
Right Leslie and Infidel?
On Wednesday, we had 8,000 in Portland. It took 3 1/2 hours just to screen everyone through the metal detectors.
I have a hunch that a bunch of MSM pundits will be red-faced in 11 days.
I hope his visit to Las Vegas fires up the base to get out vote out here...
We cannot trade Harry for Ms. Angle and expect to any influence in D.C.
TC that's a good crowd too! I have a feeling the tide is turning in these races, dems are catching up so we will see who gets the last laugh!
Dave hows it looking for 'ole Harry? I'm not in love with the guy, he is too timid for my taste but anyone is better than Angle, she is a total dimwit! Go Harry!!
Ads that seem to be working are exposing all the rethugs that voted against the stimulus then lined up to take credit for the roads, medical centers and jails and other things it brought.
I watched the debate between Russ Feingold and his opponent last night. Russ thumped his lying ass good. The republicans won't do anything drastic and resort to the truth though. They'l continue their lies and misleads to pander to the tea bagging fools.
Right Leslie and Infidel?
The momentum is clearly shifting back to our side. Republicans' poll numbers are weakening across the country. The only question is whether the 10 remaining days are enough time to shift the outcome of some of the close races.
2012 should be a much better year. For one thing, employment will have improved by then. If a brace of teabaggers makes it to Congress this year, then by 2012 voters will have had a chance to see how nutzoid they are when given actual power. If the Republicans don't do as well this year as they expect, it will intensify the infighting on the right as everyone blames everyone else, and by 2012 the Republican party will be either severely divided or much less dangerous. And even if a disappointment this year makes the party more moderate by 2012, the teabaggers and theocrats won't give up; expect a wave of third-party candidates dividing the right-wing vote.
Remember that the party in power always suffers losses in off-year elections. There was a blow-out for the Republicans in 1994 and Clinton still got re-elected in 1996.
2016? That'll be a different world. You might as well try to predict the 2000 election from the vantage point of 1980.
My biggest fear about the Republicans taking over is hunch that they're going to want to frigging "investigate" EVERYTHING that President Obama has EVER done. IMO, that could tear the country apart even more so.
Will, you may have a point but I think moderate Republicans, which should be the base, are really growing weary of all the hysterics coming from the far right: the religiosity, the lies, the hate, the anger, the bizarre statements and the out and out obstructionism. As polls have indicated, the voters are more upset with the GOP in Congress than they are with the Dems, although the latter needs to work on their performance as well.
If they start investigating every time the president sneezes, I think it will do them more harm than good. People are tired of the theatre, the game playing and the stupidity - they just want the government to govern. We are facing serious problems, which can't be dealt with with a bunch of Congressmen running around acting like spoiled fraternity brats.
I've always had a hunch that the Tea Party would fracture the GOP before all was said and done and I think we are beginning to hear the fat lady sing. I hope so anyway.
Ayatollah I'm so glad to hear Russ did good in his debate. It would be a damn shame to lose him! The thugs have nothing to offer BUT lies, they don't want the people to know what they REALLY plan on doing.
Infidel I don't like it when people say what you just did, is 10 days enough time to shift momentum. ONE day is all the people need to make up their minds, it's not really that difficult to see the difference in the parties and their plans for us. I say polls schmolls! Don't trust the polls....
I've said the same thing about 2012, the people will have had a taste of thug power for 2 years and reject it. Especially if they do the investigations and impeachment crap.
I said it either here or on someone elses blog, Clintons first 2 years were not that great and after the blowout left thugs with majority he went on and had 6 great years.
That definitely is our number one fear Will. But don't ya think it will backfire? The country is in no mood for thugs shenanigan crap!
It's all so true Leslie, I could have responded to you and Will at the same time. I do believe the country will punish the GOP if they so much as say the word impeach. Sure there is the fringe wackos who would love to see Obama impeached but what is that, 1%??
All Harry has in Nevada is the backing of every newspaper except the GOP TASS Rag, the RJ. Every major state republican office holder is backing him. The former head of the National RNC, Frank Farenkopf is backing him.
Today the Sierra Club and the US Mine Industries people, the business side which is very conservative, came out for him.
Also, anyone with half a brain has come out for him. Unfortunately, our state has a majority of people with no brains, and they all support Angle.
If Reid wins, it'll be by less than 1000 votes... for the third time!
Sue, tnlb, Darrell Issa, whenever he goes on "Hardball", he always talks so reasonably and measured. I guess that we'll just have to see, huh?
Dave,
That is amazing information on Reid.
I'm astounded that the election between Reid and Angle is still predicted to be so close!
Keep us informed!
yes that is very interesting news about Harry. This is why I'm not putting much faith in poll numbers. We just have to be patient and wait for the votes to come in.
Thomas Jefferson, Democratic Republican Party.
There is no real democratic party any longer. Just a shadow of it's former self.
The two party system today is a sad statement on American Politics.
2012 - Ron Paul - Ralph Nader ticket. Now that would be something!
RN I beg to differ with you but it seems the Republican party is the party with no identity. Every 8 yrs or so they try on a new mask, this time it's the Tea Party brigade. They want this Teanuttery to take over the rightwing but they don't even have a true leader or any kind of semblance to the old GOP. They are a total mess if you ask me. The Democratic party has their progressive side but I think all in all the democrat message is the same throughout the party.
Great, elect Ron Paul. He'll kill the fed so we can all ride to town on horseback with sacks of gold to the dry goods store. What a fossil.
Mornin C, this is where the righties are really using their brains, Ron Paul, yea that's a good one...
I see you found yet another cartoon I sent you favorable for the front page.
RN: 2012 - Ron Paul - Ralph Nader ticket. Now that would be something!
It certainly would. Carrying all fifty states would be quite a feather in Obama's cap.
Sue: t seems the Republican party is the party with no identity. Every 8 yrs or so they try on a new mask, this time it's the Tea Party brigade.
I think of both the Republican party and the teabagger movement as the latest guises that the Christian Right is trying on.
CDM: we can all ride to town on horseback with sacks of gold to the dry goods store.....
.....which won't have to serve black customers if the owner decides he doesn't want to.
I'd have the Justice Dept. investigate every republican that called for an investigation.
These kooks are like closet Gays that bash Gays. Like Larry Craig and Ted Haggard.
Dang it - I'm always the last to comment. Early voting is coming in heavily for the Dems - let's just hope this keeps up until November 2! Anyone electing a teabagger deserves what they get - a time travel back to the 1800's. Sounds like fun, eh?
yea C, thanks for those cartoons, theres always a good one to use! :-)
That would be fun to see Infidel!
Well Ayatollah(thats alot of typing, can we find you a nickname?)You'll have to head up any investigation because the dems are too scared to confront the GOP.
Lisa I hope you aren't the last comment! Have you heard this news about early voting is favoring dems? I haven't heard that, I better pay attention. That's good news!
No, I'm last. Already voted though. I even voted "yes" to protect the TN 2nd Amendment right to hunt. This measure might come in handy if Obama ever forces through that gun ban I've heard about.
I doubt Ron Paul and Ralph Nader would agree to run on the same ticket. If not them then how about Sam Webb and Yaron Brook? Or Newt Gingrich and Louis Farrakhan?
Have you heard this news about early voting is favoring dems? I haven't heard that, I better pay attention.
Well, there's this.
good for you w, now lets read the link from Infidel and see how the dems are doing, thanks Infidel!
Sue, my projection is a Senate with 51 Democrats, 47 Republicans, and 2 Independents. Effectively That's 52-48, because I count LIEberman as a Republican. In the House, one side or the other will likely have a slim majority. I'm not sure which. This is the strangest election I've ever seen so it could well be that I'm dead wrong in either direction.
Old Doom and Gloom here. I note that some of your commenters live in tradional blue states. I think it would be easier to get fired up if I didn’t live in the buckle of the Bible Belt where people look upon Democrats as they would lepers and most local races don’t even have Democrats on the ballot. It is helpful to soak up a little of your and your commenters enthusiasm, Sue. Thanks for your energy and spunk. BJ
BJ - I live in Ozark, Mo. 90% of the local ballot is republican with no choices other than that. Just goes to show how ass backwards these people are. The town is loaded with poor folks and they LOVE the republicans. That's like "Christians Against Christ" or "Rock Against Drugs".
I really don't get these people, but then again, this town is loaded with hypocrites, so....
Tomcat is dead-on. The Senate with 50-52 Dems and 46-48 Republicans.....The House I see the Republicans winning by 3-6.
I just read an article this morning on Irish Central that was interesting a bit along this line.
The reporter was suggesting that the Tea Party was creating such disgust amongst Americans (the writer is an Irishman living in Boston and reporting for Irish Central)with their loud-mouth, hate-mongering that they may very well push voters the other way.
Let's hope so.
TC, I'm not predicting, just sitting back trying to stay calm and hoping for the best. I just hope everybody VOTES!
Glad we could bring some optimism to ya BJ. Spunky, that's me! :-)
C, that's un-American! I think I would have to move if there were no Democrats on my ballots! I don't get it but one thing for sure is poor people give what little extra money they have to their church and their pastor tells them to vote republican. They listen because they are dumb sheep...
Will, you and TC sound about right. Unless the left comes out in droves and we have a liberal tsunami!
How ya doing cutie Bob? That's some good news, I hope it is right because the talk shows tonight are talking about candidate Palin for the 2012 nomination, UGH!!
Let them run Palin. I would imagine every female republican would be insulted and SOME of the moronic republican men will vote for her, but with her connection to the tea baggers, I doubt much of anyone will take her seriously enough to get even close to the white house.
Bob I can't even imagine the republican horny men would vote for Palin for Prez. She is a certifiable JOKE! But if they sit back and let the teabaggers nominate her then good for them!
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