I'm really feeling frustrated by the lefts inability to see this bill as a positive for Democrats. Please remember, President Obama is a long term planner, and wiser than all of us bloggers put together. I don't know why I can see the plan and some can't, all I know is I do and I'm feeling very positive about it. This post from Bob Cescas blog will open some eyes I hope!
from Bob Cescas Awesome blog:
Upon Further Examination
While everyone is fixated on how terrible this debt-ceiling deal is for Democrats, If one pauses long enough to really analyze the details and all of their implications, one finds that, in the long term, this deal is actually wildly in favor of the President’s position.The truth is — there actually is revenue included in this deal, and here I will briefly defer to Ezra Klein:
In a presentation to his members, Boehner says (pdf) that the rules governing the committee “effectively [make] it impossible for Joint Committee to increase taxes.” Specifically, he’s arguing that using the Congressional Budget Office’s “current-law baseline” makes tax increases impossible, as that baseline assumes the expiration of the Bush tax cuts, and so, if you touched taxes at all, you’d have to raise taxes by more than $3.6 trillion or the CBO would say you were cutting taxes and increasing the deficit.In case you don’t understand — allow me to elaborate.
Confused? That seems to be the point. Boehner is misleading his members to make them think taxes are impossible under this deal. But make no mistake: The Joint Committee could raise taxes in any number of ways. It could close loopholes and cap tax expenditures. It could impose a value-added tax, or even a tax on carbon. The Congressional Budget Office would score all of this as reducing the deficit under a current-law baseline. The only thing that wouldn’t reduce the deficit is going after part of the Bush tax cuts. That means they’re likely to go untouched in this deal.
John Boehner is selling the current CBO baseline to his caucus to pass this bill, and the current baseline includes an expiration of the Bush Tax Cuts. The only way for the Bush Cuts to be extended is if the “super congress” committee offsets it with tax hikes or tax reform in other areas. Going after the Bush Tax Cuts in the committee would not count as reducing the deficit, because the baseline already assumes they will expire.
John Boehner knows this, but most members of his caucus and, admittedly, many members of the Democratic caucus don’t realize it. I didn’t put two and two together myself until late last night.
If you view this deal from the perspective that there is a guarantee the Bush Tax Cuts will expire, then suddenly the deal swings wildly in favor of President Obama.
The president offered John Boehner a 4:1, cuts:revenue deal, but what he ended up getting instead is a 1:2, cuts:revenue deal.
The Bush Tax Cuts account for roughly $3.7 trillion dollars in additional revenue over 10 years. The spending-cuts tentatively agreed to in the deal account for only $2.7 trillion dollars over 10 years. This means there is $1 trillion more dollars in revenue contained inside the deal over 10 years than there are spending cuts.
Furthermore, the spending cuts contained inside the bill do not come into effect until 2013, after the Bush Tax Cuts expire, meaning the revenue and cuts come into effect at roughly the same time.
If the rabid members of John Boehner’s caucus realized this, they would probably be calling for his head.
It’s no coincidence that President Obama came out last night and bluntly said this is not the deal he wanted. It’s no coincidence that John Boehner and Eric Cantor both told their caucus that President Obama “caved.” They have to say this, because if it appears that President Obama got anything in the deal, then suddenly it can’t pass the House of Representatives. There is nothing they hate more than giving the president a victory, so it has to appear as if he got nothing, and they have been pretty convincing.
President Obama knew this would look bad for his administration in the short term, but he took that risk in exchange for winning further along down the road. As I mentioned above, none of this policy actually comes into effect until 2013. Not even the spending cuts. Only 1% of the spending cuts will be felt in 2012.
This deal masterfully accomplishes the task of kicking the can down the road for the Republicans without actually appearing so unless you really dig deep into it, and it leaves most of the details up to the next session of Congress beginning in January of 2013.
We all owe the president a great deal of respect for being willing to take the political hit in the short term to save us in the long term.
47 comments:
Your patriotism is admirable. Thanks for the analysis. It is encouraging to think of the Bush tax cuts expiring. I guess that means they expire for all of us, right? But we'll send those tea partying radicals back to their respective dens and warrens next year. Isn't Traitor Joe retiring as well? We'll bring in some true Sons and Daughters of Liberty to take their places.
FJ, remember the tax cut debate, I believe a majority of Americans said if the tax cuts to the wealthy expiring meant the cuts to all would expire then yes, they would be for that.
I guess I better sit back and be quiet for awhile, I'd hate to lose friends over this. As you can see I am fiercely opinionated and ferociously stubborn..:-)
Republicans will not roll over on the Bush tax cuts. They don't care what the CBO says or what their baseline is. They will argue like they did in 2010, if tax rates go up, it is a tax increase. That is simple for people to understand. Start bringing in the CBO and "current-law baseline", and peoples' eyes will glaze over and their brains will shut off. Republicans know that. They go for sound bites. Democrats go for logic and understanding.
And you can see how that is working out!
Wow, that is very interesting, I hadn't realized this. I knew the Bush tax cuts could still expire under the current deal but didn't know that the deal assumed they would! Very cool. I am with you, that President Obama is smart and knows what he is doing.
A Talking Points Memo reader comments.. I found this on thepeoplesview.net..The TPM Readers notes:
The GOP came out of this looking unreasonable--I've been getting E-mail messages from friends saying they are back with the Democrats because the Tea Party is "destroying this country." Nate Silver tweeted last week that local conservative talk radio in Kansas was filled with callers attacking the Tea Party! The Wall Street Journal ran two editorials which called the GOP delusional and "childish." The vaunted GOP message discipline broke down--I read stories all over the "inside baseball" papers here in DC where GOP House members went on the record after the Friday vote wondering out loud if the party had been damaged! I don't know if you noticed, but John Boehner spent last week negotiating with himself. No new proposals came out from the Dem side, but he produced two proposals, one of which he had to pull after he didn't have votes. A congressional Dem staffer told me his dad, an urban Catholic who voted for Nixon over Kennedy and has always voted Republican suddenly thinks the GOP is out to lunch and supports the President.
Expiring the Bush tax cuts is not the kind of tax increase I was looking for. If we are cutting social programs, that is a poor man's tax and it needs to be coupled with a raise in the top marginal rates and/or long term capital gains tax.
As for theory that the Tea Party will actually expire the Bush tax cuts, it is nothing more than a Theory. Have you consulted the Tea Party to learn what they intend to do?
Oh, and Sue, I am not deaf to your message. I will join you. Rah! rah! rah!
Oh, and this: We all owe the president a great deal of respect for being willing to take the political hit in the short term to save us in the long term. I hear you. Obama is nothing if not one tough cookie.
I'm really feeling frustrated by the lefts inability to see this bill as a positive for Democrats.
Don't mistake a noisy minority for "the left". There's already empirical evidence that rank-and-file Democrats like the deal -- it's the righties who hate it.
Mainly I'm speaking about my blogger and FB friends. Seems they don't have the enthusiasm for Obama like I do...LOL! Hopefully they'll come around, but that's ok if they don't...
John, did all our wishes need to be in this initial bill? I'm just glad the debt ceiling was raised, we have 5 more yrs to work on the rest. First we have an election to worry about, ousting the teabaggers and bringing in good Democrats is our goal. So for all the unhappy Dems, I hope they get their thoughts straightened out or we could be calling our next president Ms. Bachmann! (((((shudder))))))
"they don't have the enthusiasm for Obama like I do"
I admit I lack "enthusiasm", BUT Obama is head and shoulders above any of the potential republican candidates.
hang around with me long enough Jerry and you'll get that enthusiasm back! :-)
2012 is gonna be great!
I hope 2012 is when republicans, and teabaggers in particular, get their asses handed to them.
I think that's a given!
Actually Jerry the first "handing their arses" to the most childish political faction in the country starts this fall in Wisconsin.
That should help create momentum for the democratic side to build on next year and show the Koch, rove, GOPer crowd, that their masters aren't as invincible as they and their corporate bought and controlled MSM pretend.
Oh and it might help the democratic side become more emboldened to take on those who want to recreate a permanent aristocracy in the country the founding fathers fought to expel.
Somebody posted Greenwald's screed on my FB. When I went back to enlighten her, she had already taken it down, so I assume someone else had already given her a clue.
This is a hell of a good piece. I wonder (because I don't know) if this would mean that these Bush tax cuts would revert back to what they were before the Bush tax cuts???
rah, rah, rah... 2012 should be very interesting. 2016 will be even more interesting after the country realizes the results of a very questionable, and likely very flawed "deal."
I am actually hearing echos of a modern Greece with a symphony lead by... I guess I'll leave it to your vivid imaginations.
Thank you for saying this! I wish the Democratic leadership (Pelosi and Obama himself for starters) would stand up tall, smile wide, and express enthusiasm for the victory that Democrats scored with this deal. Is it perfect, of course not. That's how democracy works.
I do agree with Jerry Critter, that in addition to more positive messaging about this deal, Democrats need to message in sound bytes more often. Positive messages in catchy form. Works every time!
Sue,
Just as possession is 9/10's of the law, so perception is 9/10's of many things, especially politics.
The next fight will be over Obama's next budget, not so far off.
The perception (some fact) suggest that the teabaggers won this one. That gives them momentum and more support from the public.
What will their strategy be? Maybe the same strategy they just used. Mainly, the longer they hold out, the more favorable the final outcome for them.
The Republicans need to be slapped around by the President; and "tan man" needs to slap around the teabaggers and lead the "sane" Republican party. Oh, I forgot, "tan man" is insane also.
Most do not follow these events as close as you do. They come to different perceptions and decisions, because of their lack of knowledge.
There is good reason for liberals to disappointed with Obama.
As for me, I wrote about it yesterday.
#37927, I feel a wave of enthusiasm across the country for the president and Dems in general, and alot of that started in Wisconsin! Good news coming outta there too with Dems leading in the recall elections! I'm always amazed by the voters who still support the Republiscums/teabaggers!
I knew you'd like it L, once you had time to digest it.
Isn't it supposed to be the tax cuts will simply expire and we go back to Clinton era rates? Jerry has that answer I'm sure, Jerry, are ya there??
I am here, and stop calling me Jerry.
Are you saying that the top marginal rates will return to 39%?
by what I'm hearing, Tom, the teabaggers don't have the momentum but they are getting the blame for the debacle. Seems to me the people are seeing this group of obstructionist morons for the government hating idiots they really are.
I'm sure they have the support from the people who sent them to Washington, but this is a minority of morons, I'm not worried about them one bit!
Thanks anon, I agree, alot of Dems don't toot their owns horns nearly enough! We have to work on that!
John there's alot out there if ya do a Google search. You're not trying to trip me up here are ya? :-)
I found this for ya...
Higher Tax Rates with Repeal of Bush Era Tax Cuts
Beginning in 2011, tax rates that were in effect prior to 2001 and 2003 will be restored if President Obama does not extend the Bush tax cuts. These tax cuts included reductions in some individual income-tax rates, levies on capital gains and dividends, changes to the estate tax and relief from the so- called marriage penalty, in which a married couple may pay more in taxes than if they filed as separate individuals. The top income tax rate would go back to 39.6 percent, and the special low 10 percent bracket is eliminated.
Whether this actually happens will be a major point of contention in Congress especially in the contradictory light of the recession and record federal deficits. In all likelihood and based on stated views, it is likely that the Obama administration and Democratic lawmakers will extend income-tax cuts that benefit American families earning less than $250,000 a year, while allowing tax rate reductions for high-income earners to lapse. This means boosts in the top marginal rates from 33% and 35% to 36% and 39.6% respectively.
If I hear one more fuckin rethuglican whine and cry about taxes I'm gonna SCREAMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMM!!! Pay your taxes or get the hell out of my country!!
Sue,
The Bush Tax Cuts are not part of the debt ceiling deal. HOWEVER, they are set to expire at the end of 2012, shortly after the election. If nothing is done, they will expire and the rates will return to the Clinton-era rates. Tax rates will go up for everyone, not only the top brackets.
I suspect that taxes will be a big part of the 2012 campaign. Republicans will call for making the Bush tax cuts permanent. Democrats will call for increasing the top brackets only, and/or possibly maintaining the Bush tax cuts if sufficient loopholes and tax breaks are eliminated.
At least that's my opinion of how things will unfold.
oh I know Jerry, I was just answering Leslie's question about the Bush tax cuts. I agree with you and do believe it will unfold just as you say. The thugs will not roll over and give ANYTHING to Obama, certainly anything to do with taxes, and this will be labeled a tax increase by them!
a) Let the Bush tax-cuts expire. b) Introduce a bill calling for middle-class tax-cuts. c) Dare the Republicans to vote it down.
Will, the republicans would not think twice about voting it down. They wouldn't even blink, no daring required.
Believe it or not... FOX News is already spinning this as damaging to the president. Apparently his chances for re-election are in the toilet. I heard a table of FOX News viewers today, (don't ask me how they know they are with their own kind,) seriously talking about Palin and Bachmann. I mean as the candidates of choice or the next president or something like that. I couldn't even make eye contact. Later in the bathroom, I started giggling and laughing out loud.
c) Dare the Republicans to vote it down.
Will, that is a no brainer for the people who were advocating not paying the troops, and their families, this month to get protect their sacred tax cuts.
The people in congress, and their handlers, who want to defend tax cuts for millionaires and billionaires, no matter the damage to the entire country.
Remember, they have already attacked teachers, the unemployed and poor, just to keep the oil corps receiving their corporate welfare.
The GOPers know who their real masters are and are willing to do what ever it takes politically to fulfill the demands of those masters. Hint, it ain't the tea baggers, but the behind the scenes small cadre who fund that astroturf movement and direct the front groups.
FJ You are too much! Sometimes when I need a good laugh or I need to empty my stomach I'll put Fox on. I can't get past 2 minutes of their hideous crap tho...
They have to say stupid shit like that or the rethug base will be lost. I often wonder if they start laughing about the crappy lies they spew when the camera is turned off and say to each other "I can't believe I just said that!" LOL
John is right, Will, but I do like your train of thought.
They will spin poor and middle class tax cuts as income redistribution and class warfare. Along with the middle class tax cuts, I would add additional tax brackets at the top end with even higher taxes.
"...[Fox]talking about Palin and Bachmann. I mean as the candidates of choice..."
Does anyone need any further evidence of how witheringly stupid the Foxbots are?
The many times Defeated One, Palin, and the homophobe numbskull, Bachmann, will NEVER be a nominee, never mind a president.
But FOX does have to keep peddling it's horseshit to its viewers to make them happy. They thrive on manure.
I think that John is right, too, Sue. But I also believe that there would be consequences, at the ballot box.
Only we have to assume that Obama has a second term. Otherwise the Bush tax cuts could be renewed by a Repub president. The spending cuts aren't allowed to touch the big 3 (SS, Medicare and Medicaid) so it will mostly be in our bloated military budget and other non-essential services. Obama did good on this one and the Repubs got hosed, they just don't realize it yet.
Boehner is a drunk, but even he knows that the Chimpy ladles for the rich are going to have to go, sooner rather than later.
Having said that, this deal still sucks. The most positive estimates out there count up a million lost jobs. This is not a "win" for 98% of us, and the "long view" isn't going to buy an unemployed worker any groceries this week.
Jerry,
When we talk about raising top marginal rates, we are talking primarily about taxing the rich. At that level a 70% tax is close to an effective 70% tax on all income. If we close loopholes and tax at 70%, we virtually ended the phenomenon where someone in American can get rich (or even financially secure, really). To do this, would to be to end a portion of the American dream. Very few liberals would support that actual event, and I am one of them who certainly would not.
John,
I am not so sure it is a bad as you make it sound. For example, if the 70% rate applies to incomes over 10 million dollars, and the person makes 11 million, the 70% is only on the 1 million above the 10 million. Also, if it was on the whole 10 million dollars, I am not sure that's so bad either. After all, most people would love to have to exist on only 3 million dollars a year.
Secondly, get rid of most deductions and loopholes, treat capital gains as regular income, and a lower top rate, maybe in the range of 50%, would be OK.
I think I could live the rest of my life very comfortably on ONE million, and even much less. I'm just a simple girl with a simple life...
Good to see ya Lisa G, G for the Good Lisa! I don't want to think about Obama losing to one of those incompetent boobs from the rethug party, too scary! I think he did well on this deal too, remember he a is a long term planner and good things are to come. No cuts til 2013, giving the economy more time to grow. Now if only those thugs would stop obstructing!
JR, we don't see eye to eye on this, but that's ok, we don't have to agree on EVERYTHING right?? :-)
Jerry, I realize that in a progressive tax system only the top marginal portion of the income gets taxed at the top marginal rates.
This means the as you become more and more wealthy, you effective tax rate approaches, never reaches, the top marginal rate.
As one becomes more and more wealthy if their effective rate is really approaching 70%, they will do something about it. They will not, and should not, pay close to 70% on any portion of their income.
Bill Gates would effectively pay 70% taxes on his income if he cooperated. He would not. He would, and should, move operations out of American and into a capitalist nation under that scenario.
I am OK with closing loopholes and raising top marginal rates to above 40%. In fact, that is what I favor and that is all I favor. The above 40% would be temporary and only on an as needed basis.
Currently the effective top marginal rate is truly unknowable, but I doubt that it is above 20% and it is probably lower. Jumping to a true 40% would be a huge leap. Once the budget was balanced and debt paid down, I would drop taxes way back down until more revenue was needed.
Sue, love the Frank Schaeffer quote!
Me too Shaw! I found it on FB..
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