Obama's Lucky 13!

Sorry President Barack Obama haters, he will be yours and My president until 2016, so get used to it!  According to Allen Lichtman, in his book The Keys to the White House, the 13 Keys to winning re election are showing him Barack Obama will win in 2012.  Oh sure, conservatives will boo hoo this book but Lichtman has correctly predicted the wins and loses of every presidential election since 1984. He says even at this early date he does not see how Obama can lose...

Here's how it works, Lichtman identifies 13 keys to the presidency with yes or no questions,  if six of these questions go against the incumbent, the incumbent loses. If it is less than six, the incumbent wins.

 Here are those keys from Politicology and Noah Rothman,

1.       Party Mandate: After the midterm election, the incumbent party holds more seats in the U.S. House of Representatives than they did after the previous midterm elections. – Yeah, this one is a loss for the president. But, it’s early. Let’s keep going.

2.       Contest: There is no contest for the incumbent party nomination. – Nope. There is definitely grumbling in the Democratic set but it's objectively hard to conceive of a major challenge to Obama for the Democratic nomination. The president wins.

3.       Incumbency: The incumbent party candidate is the president. – Yep. Another win.

4.       Third Party: There is no significant third party challenge. – Well… yet to be seen. “significant” is probably the saving grace here. There has been a third and even fourth party candidate with some national stature in every election since 1992, so it’s a safe bet that there will be a third party candidate of some kind. How major a challenge that third party is to either party is debatable. But, Lichtman give this one to Obama so I will too. Win.

5.       Short Term Economy: The economy is not in recession during the campaign. – Lichtman gives this an “undecided” ranking, meaning that it is uncounted. Given the trends we are seeing it is hard to think that this is a growing economy. I know, officially the recession ended in 2009 and 2010 was the start of the recovery, but all that is Orwellian “new speak” compared to the reality on the ground. I’m inclined to give Obama a losing score on this point, but we’ll count our tallies later.

6.       Long-Term Economy: Real per capita economic growth during the term equals or exceeds mean growth during the previous two terms. – Yeah, inherited or no, this economy blows and Obama will take it on the chin for it. Obama loses this one objectively.

7.       Policy Change: The incumbent administration effects major changes in national policy.  – Without question. Some of the most sweeping policy changes we’ve seen in a decade or more. Obama wins. (The popularity of those sweeping changes is not taken into account).

8.       Social Unrest: There is no sustained social unrest. – Obama wins this too. The Tea Party may have counted but its intensity has dissipated after the 2010 elections. Also, the Tea Party label is becoming less and less popular, signifying that this movement will not be “sustained” into 2012.

9.       Scandal: The incumbent administration is untainted by major scandal. – Lichtman gives this one to Obama. Although his assessment that “this administration has been squeaky clean,” is overly complimentary. I have not seen a “squeaky clean” administration in my lifetime and this is no exception. We’ll see how Cash for Firearms plays out… As that matures, however, it’s a win.

10.   Foreign / Military Failure: The incumbent administration suffers no major failure in foreign or military affairs. – Nothing significant. Big win for Obama.

11.   Foreign / Military Success: The incumbent administration achieves a major success in foreign or military affairs. – Oh yeah. Bin Laden, Libya… Obama win.

12.   Incumbent Charisma: The incumbent party candidate is charismatic or a national hero. – Lichtman does not give this one to Obama. He cites the doctrine of “leading from behind,” in foreign affairs and in domestic policy debates as the problem. This one, despite expectations to the contrary in 2008, is a loss for Obama.

13.   Challenger Charisma: The challenging party candidate is not charismatic or a national hero. – This is a win for Obama. Unless Gen. David Patraeus​ jumps in, the GOP race is devoid of national heroes.

There you have it, 8 wins for Obama!

Lichtman, Rothman, and I say YES, Barack Obama wins in 2012!!